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December 22, 2025

Updates

The calm before a new interest rate era?

Markets closed strongly last week, supported by favourable interest rate decisions and a reassuring tone from central banks. In both the United Kingdom and the United States, markets reacted positively to signals that inflationary pressure is continuing to ease and that monetary policy may gradually be relaxed towards 2026. No shocks, no surprises, just the kind of stability investors have been looking for. This brought relief, renewed confidence, and a constructive mood as the year draws to a close. The calm feels well-earned after an intense year for markets, but that does not mean the tension has disappeared. The coming week will see the market shift into holiday mode, with shorter trading days, lower volumes, and many major players having already secured their positions. In both the UK and the US, the market will be running at half speed. Precisely because of that, sensitivity may increase. In thin trading, even small signals can trigger relatively large price movements, which makes this quiet week potentially more meaningful than it may appear at first glance. In the United States, attention will focus on the last macroeconomic data before year-end. The final GDP figure for the third quarter will offer one more look at the underlying strength of the economy, while weekly jobless claims will be closely watched. Normally not a major data point, but at this stage, crucial. The labour market remains the key to the Federal Reserve’s interest rate outlook. As long as the economy cools without truly weakening, the scenario of rate cuts next year remains intact, and that is exactly what the market is anticipating. The picture in the United Kingdom is similar. After the recent interest rate decision from the Bank of England, the economic agenda is fairly light, but the market remains alert. Falling inflation offers room to manoeuvre, while the economy is showing cautious signs of stabilisation. Investors are increasingly accepting that the peak in interest rates is probably behind us and are looking ahead more clearly to early 2026. January will be important, when fresh inflation and growth figures must confirm whether further easing is genuinely within reach.   BP BP has announced a change in leadership. The board has appointed Meg O’Neill as the company’s new CEO, effective 1 April 2026. She joins from Woodside Energy, where she led the company to become the largest energy producer on the Australian stock exchange. Current CEO Murray Auchincloss is stepping down with immediate effect and will remain in an advisory role until the end of 2026. Until O’Neill takes over, Carol Howle will serve as interim CEO. This appointment signals a clear move towards acceleration. O’Neill is known for her focus on discipline, capital allocation, and operational improvement. The board has emphasised that BP must become simpler, leaner, and more profitable. For investors, this is a clear signal. BP wants to pick up the pace and create renewed value for shareholders. We are already up nearly 20 per cent and are holding on to the stock.   Grab Holdings Grab is taking a new step towards autonomous driving. The Southeast Asian super-platform has entered into a strategic partnership with Momenta, a leading company in autonomous driving technology, and has also taken a strategic stake. Together, they are exploring how advanced driver assistance systems and robotaxi solutions can be rolled out in the complex urban markets of Southeast Asia. Momenta combines large-scale ADAS technology, already used by manufacturers such as Mercedes-Benz and BMW, with the development of fully autonomous robotaxis. By integrating this technology directly into vehicles, autonomous mobility can be scaled without expensive modifications. For Grab, this represents a key step towards making autonomous transport safe and commercially viable within its platform. A clear investment in the future of mobility. We remain confident in the stock, which stays in our 2026 portfolio.   Rolls-Royce Rolls-Royce jumped nearly 7 per cent last week, benefiting from continued optimism around defence spending and nuclear energy in the UK. Investors increasingly see Rolls-Royce as a strategic winner in a world where energy security and defence are back at the top of the political agenda. With strong cash flows, improved margins, and growing attention for small modular reactors, sentiment around the stock remains positive. The share price movement underlines that the market no longer sees Rolls-Royce as a recovery story but as a structural growth company. In 2025, Rolls-Royce delivered a gain of over 100 per cent, making it a clear winner in our portfolio. We have high expectations for the stock again in 2026.

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