
Driven by sentiment, while uncertainty persists
Once again, it was a week in which sentiment dominated the markets. This is clearly reflected in the portfolio. Movements are rapid and often driven not by fundamental changes, but by expectations, headlines and geopolitics. In such an environment, it is essential to remain focused on the quality of the underlying businesses. Share prices may correct, but that does not necessarily reflect the intrinsic value of a company. Much of the ongoing uncertainty continues to stem from developments in the Middle East. Where there had previously been hopes of renewed dialogue between the United States and Iran, that scenario now appears increasingly unlikely. Talks failed to materialise over the weekend, and even indirect negotiations did not take place. As a result, the situation remains firmly at an impasse. This is highly relevant for financial markets, as the consequences are immediately tangible. The Strait of Hormuz remains a critical factor, and as long as stability is absent, upward pressure on oil prices is likely to persist. This feeds into inflation expectations and complicates the task for central banks. The likelihood of a near-term de-escalation appears limited, meaning this will remain a key source of volatility. At the same time, earnings season is in full swing. Over the coming weeks, a steady flow of results is expected, including from companies within our portfolio. BP will report its first-quarter results tomorrow. Of particular importance will be management’s outlook on the situation surrounding the Strait of Hormuz. The market currently views BP as a potential beneficiary, but it is crucial to understand how management itself assesses these developments. On the macro front, it will also be a busy week. The Federal Reserve’s interest rate decision is scheduled for Wednesday, followed by the Bank of England and the European Central Bank on Thursday. While rates are expected to remain unchanged, the tone and forward guidance will be equally important. In addition, US growth data and inflation indicators such as core PCE will provide further direction for monetary policy. Overall, the picture remains unchanged. Markets are being driven by sentiment, while underlying uncertainty persists. This calls for discipline and a continued focus on the long term. Periods like these often lay the foundation for future returns. Envipco Envipco introduced some uncertainty last week by postponing the publication of its annual report. While the results were initially expected by 30 April at the latest, this has now been delayed until approximately 15 May. Notably, the company has not provided a clear explanation for the postponement. At the same time, Envipco indicated that no changes are expected compared to the previously published, unaudited figures. From a fundamental perspective, little has changed, but the lack of clarity does create some noise in the market. It is also relevant to look at peer company Tomra. Its results were mixed overall, but the Collection segment, which includes deposit return systems, delivered strong growth, with revenue increasing by 12% to €208 million, and 15% when adjusted for currency effects. This is particularly relevant as it is the exact market in which Envipco operates. It confirms that underlying demand for deposit return solutions remains strong and continues to grow structurally, driven by regulation and further system rollouts. On balance, little has changed in our view. The delay is not ideal and raises questions, but the sector dynamics remain positive. Sharesunderten therefore remains constructive, with a focus on the final results and further commentary from management. Rolls-Royce Rolls-Royce came under pressure last week due to a combination of geopolitical developments and sector sentiment. Rising tensions between the United States and Iran pushed oil prices higher, with Brent approaching $100. This has a direct impact on the aviation sector. For airlines, higher fuel costs translate into margin pressure, often leading to capacity adjustments. This is already becoming visible. Airlines such as Lufthansa have reduced flight schedules due to the situation in the Middle East. Fewer flight hours directly reduce demand for maintenance services, which is a key driver of Rolls-Royce’s business model. Approximately half of the company’s revenue is derived from civil aviation, with a significant portion based on so-called “power-by-the-hour” service contracts. As a result, fewer flight hours have a direct impact on revenue and profitability. Additionally, there was further negative sentiment from within the sector. GE Aerospace lowered its growth expectations for global flight activity in 2026, which weighed on sentiment across the engine manufacturing industry. These factors are largely short-term in nature and do not reflect the company’s long-term potential, but they do create near-term pressure. While this highlights the company’s sensitivity to macroeconomic and geopolitical developments, Sharesunderten continues to see significant long-term potential and maintains a strong position in the stock. Grafton Group At Grafton Group, last week’s movements were primarily technical and capital-driven. The stock went ex-dividend on 23 April, with the final dividend for 2025 of 27 pence per share being detached. As is typical, this resulted in an automatic downward adjustment in the share price, independent of underlying performance. The actual dividend payment will be made on 21 May. At the same time, Grafton continues to return capital to shareholders through share buybacks. In early March, the company launched a new programme of up to £25 million, and additional shares were repurchased last week. Approximately 75,000 shares were bought on 21 April at around 952 pence, followed by further purchases on 23 April. These shares are subsequently cancelled. This underlines management’s confidence in the company’s valuation and its strong cash flow position. From our perspective, the investment case remains unchanged. Grafton continues to be a stable operator, deploying capital in a disciplined manner and rewarding shareholders through multiple channels.