
Markets stay resilient despite geopolitical tensions and rate pressure
Last week was once again a volatile one. The market started cautiously but rebounded on Thursday following a series of earnings releases and central bank decisions. Both the ECB and the Bank of England left interest rates unchanged, but it was mainly the tone from the ECB that stood out. Concerns are increasingly shifting toward economic growth, while inflation is rising again to 3.0%. This places the ECB in a difficult position, where a rate hike later this spring is becoming more realistic. Over the weekend, focus shifted back entirely to geopolitics. Iran sent a fourteen-point plan to the United States as a basis for new negotiations. This involves a phased approach, starting with agreements on the Strait of Hormuz and a ceasefire, followed by discussions on the nuclear program. The response from the U.S. was less reassuring. Trump stated he would review the proposal but also made it clear that he is unlikely to find it sufficient and does not rule out new airstrikes. As a result, the risk of escalation remains clearly present, despite renewed diplomatic efforts on paper. For the market, this means the familiar pattern remains intact. Hope for negotiations provides relief, but strong rhetoric from both sides keeps uncertainty elevated. Given the strategic importance of the Strait of Hormuz, any developments continue to directly impact oil prices and overall sentiment. Looking ahead, it will be an interesting week. In the U.S., we will receive key labor market data, including JOLTS and later the non-farm payrolls, along with wage growth and unemployment figures. These data points are crucial for the Fed’s interest rate path. In the UK, a speech from the Bank of England is also scheduled. Overall, the picture remains unchanged. The market is holding up well but continues to operate in an environment where geopolitics and macroeconomic data can quickly alternate as the dominant driver. This keeps volatility present, even within an upward trend. Additionally, it promises to be a busy week with many earnings reports. Within our portfolio, Grab Holdings reported better-than-expected results last night. We are pleased with this and it confirms our decision to recently double our position. Brunel will report its results this Friday. Following encouraging results from peers, we expect a positive signal here as well. Many companies also pay dividends during this period, with Deceuninck going ex-dividend today. Banijay Last week, we added Banijay to the portfolio. In our view, it is a stock that is still underappreciated by the market. The company combines two strong growth pillars: a global content machine with well-known formats and a fast-growing gaming division with high margins. What makes Banijay particularly interesting is the combination of strong cash flows, expanding margins, and a relatively low valuation. Despite solid performance, the stock trades at multiples more typical of a value stock than a growth company. Additionally, the dividend provides an attractive extra return, while cash flow leaves room for further debt reduction and growth. Sharesunderten sees Banijay as a stock with both price appreciation and dividend potential. As the market begins to better understand this story and liquidity improves, we expect a clear re-rating of the stock. Grab Holdings There was news from Indonesia regarding Grab Holdings that initially appeared negative. The government plans to reduce the maximum commission companies can charge on rides via their platform from 20% to below 10%. While this may seem negative at first glance, Grab indicated in its recent earnings update that there are multiple levers it can pull. This does not necessarily mean total revenue per ride will be halved. The company also reported strong results. In the first quarter, revenue grew by 24% to $955 million, while the number of active users increased by 16% to 51.6 million. Transaction volume also rose by 24% to $6.1 billion, demonstrating broad platform growth. Profitability is also clearly improving. Grab reported net income of $120 million, partly supported by a one-off revaluation of financial positions. More importantly, underlying profitability is improving strongly. EBITDA rose by 46% to $154 million, and margins are expanding, indicating increasing operational leverage. For us, the broader picture remains unchanged. Grab benefits from multiple growth drivers, such as deliveries and financial services, both of which are growing strongly. We are satisfied with these results. It appears Grab is gaining traction in the market and adapting well to regulation. This confirms our decision to recently increase our position. ME Group ME Group held its annual general meeting, where several key points were confirmed. A final dividend of 4.79 pence was approved, bringing the total dividend for 2025 to 8.64 pence per share, representing an increase of 9.5%. The annual accounts and remuneration report were approved, and the composition of the board remained unchanged. Management was also granted continued flexibility to issue shares and allocate capital. Notably, the company expressed its intention to launch a share buyback program of £15 to £20 million. This highlights management’s confidence in cash flow and the underlying value of the company. The AGM reinforces the strong fundamentals of ME Group. The combination of growth and a dividend yield of around 6%, which is relatively high, may indicate that the stock is significantly undervalued. This makes the stock, in Sharesunderten’s view, still highly attractive. BP BP reported strong first-quarter results. The British energy giant clearly benefited from higher oil prices, with underlying profit more than doubling. Profit rose from $1.54 billion in the previous quarter to $3.2 billion, significantly exceeding analyst expectations of $2.67 billion. The division responsible for oil trading and fuel sales performed particularly well, with quarterly profit reaching $2.5 billion compared to $1.4 billion previously. Cash flow also remained strong, with operating cash flow at $2.9 billion. Net debt stood at $25.3 billion, but BP remains committed to reducing this to between $14 and $18 billion by the end of 2027. This shows that the company is maintaining a focus on balance sheet strength alongside growth. Shareholders continue to be rewarded. BP is paying a dividend of