A New Year, Full Focus from the Start

The British stock market experienced a cautious trading week, in which geopolitical tensions created some noise but caused no lasting damage. Threats from the United States regarding additional import tariffs briefly stirred up market jitters, but these quickly faded following diplomatic talks at the World Economic Forum. This shift gave markets the space to stabilise. In London, the impact remained limited, partly due to the defensive composition of the FTSE, where energy, commodities, and financials offered protection against uncertainty.

And so, investors concluded a hectic week on the markets. Markets were flooded with news from Washington, where concerns resurfaced about the independence of the Federal Reserve. At the same time, geopolitical tensions escalated, with Iran and, unexpectedly, Greenland emerging as flashpoints. That unrest intensified on Friday after President Trump threatened import tariffs on countries he claimed were “not cooperating on the Greenland issue.”

The stock market began the year with confidence. The FTSE 100 broke through the 10,000-point barrier, signalling that investor optimism remains very much alive. Interestingly, this strength did not come from the usual growth stories, but rather from the more “boring” corners of the market. Energy and defence stocks were in the spotlight, driven by geopolitical tensions and a growing focus on security and strategic independence. Investors were seeking stability, visible cash flows and companies positioned to benefit from an increasingly turbulent world. At the same time, the macroeconomic backdrop remained surprisingly constructive. Inflation figures failed to trigger fresh market jitters, and investors continued to believe that central banks may have room to cut interest rates later this year. This created an uneasy but powerful combination: on the one hand, caution around valuations; on the other, enough confidence to continue taking risk. The result was a market that did not surge, but continued to edge higher, step by step.

As the Christmas lights glow once again, the final trading days of the year pass by, and 2025 steadily draws to a close, this is the perfect moment to look back together. Christmas and New Year are, above all, days of reflection, gratitude, and anticipation for what lies ahead. And as we reflect at Sharesunderten, we do so with a big smile. We are closing out 2025 with a fantastic return of 41.1%. This means that members who have faithfully followed our advice have seen outstanding results. That is ultimately what we do it for, and we are genuinely proud and deeply grateful. 2025 also brought some real standouts, shares where timing, vision, and courage all came together. Golgonda Gold exploded by 130% in under a month. Our old favourite, Rolls Royce, also doubled this year, adding to an already substantial gain and bringing us to an impressive total return of nearly 1,300%. Two of our most recent picks, Kloeckner & Co and Kistos, also showed how quickly things can move once the market wakes up. Following confirmation of takeover talks, the latter has already gained nearly 40% in less than six weeks. There is also Glencore, a share that continues to climb steadily. We are now up nearly 35% on this one as well, and we expect much more going into 2026. Christmas is about togetherness, trust, and looking ahead. The same applies to investing. On behalf of the entire Sharesunderten team, we would like to thank all our members for their trust over the past year. We wish you a joyful holiday season and a healthy, happy, and above all profitable 2026.   BP BP has taken an important strategic step by selling a 65 percent stake in Castrol to Stonepeak, based on an enterprise value of 10.1 billion dollars. The valuation of around 8.6 times LTM EBITDA highlights the quality and growth profile of Castrol and confirms that BP is able to unlock value at attractive levels. The transaction is expected to generate approximately 6.0 billion dollars in net proceeds for BP. This amount will be used entirely for debt reduction. At the end of the third quarter of 2025, net debt stood at 26.1 billion dollars, and BP is aiming for a range of 14 to 18 billion dollars by the end of 2027. This divestment brings that goal within closer reach and significantly reduces the company’s financial risk. Importantly, BP will retain a 35 percent interest in Castrol. This means the company will continue to benefit from Castrol’s strong operational performance, which has now delivered year-on-year profit growth for nine consecutive quarters. After a two-year lock-up period, BP will also have the flexibility to sell this remaining stake at a later stage, offering additional strategic options. The sale of Castrol. fits within the broader plan to divest 20 billion dollars in assets. With this deal, more than half of that programme has now been completed or announced. At the same time, BP is simplifying its portfolio, focusing more clearly on its core business, and structurally improving its cash flow. For us, this transaction confirms that BP is making deliberate choices. Value is being realised, the balance sheet is being strengthened, and the business is being streamlined and made more profitable. Combined with continued exposure to Castrol and an improved financial position, we see every reason to hold on to BP with confidence as we enter 2026.   Grab Holdings This listed company continues its steady progress towards profitability, delivering a profitable third quarter in 2025 and raising its outlook, while its share price has recently pulled back, offering a potential entry point. Its super app ecosystem, with strong network effects between mobility, delivery, and financial services, is now showing clear operational leverage. Core segments are growing solidly, margins are improving, and revenues from advertising and fintech are strengthening monetisation. Despite ongoing competition and continued investment, the balance sheet remains very strong with a substantial net cash position. The valuation appears attractive in relation to the growth potential and market penetration in Southeast Asia. Increasingly, peer analysts and strategic desks are recognising this combination of scale, profitability, and underutilised market opportunity. Needless to say, we share this view. Grab is evolving from a growth story into a sustainably profitable platform. In that context, we believe the share is structurally undervalued.   Glencore Glencore shares continue to rise, and the company is making impressive progress. This is also evident in its latest move, acquiring a majority stake in Dutch company FincoEnergies. The market views this mainly as a way to further strengthen its position in the Northwest European fuels market. FincoEnergies is a strong independent player focused on sustainable fuels and providing solutions for decarbonisation. Think of biofuels via GoodFuels, programmes like GoodShipping, and services such as FuelEU Pooling, which help transport companies meet stricter sustainability requirements more easily. This acquisition fits within Glencore’s broader ambition to grow its marketing and trading activities. The company has already raised its earnings target for this division, supported by expansion into new markets and product lines. In 2025, the picture is clear. Metals trading is performing strongly, offsetting weaker energy trading, as energy markets have returned to more normal conditions after a period of extreme volatility. With FincoEnergies, Glencore gains additional scale and access to a key region, precisely where demand and regulation are set to grow in importance over the coming years. Sharesunderten sees this as a strong candidate for the year ahead.