A Bank in Recovery

First of all, we would like to emphasize that our analysts continue to closely monitor the stocks in our portfolio at all times. We keep our radar on 24/7. Every week we provide updates, but whenever unexpected news emerges or another important event occurs, we will immediately respond with Breaking News updates. At the moment, we remain satisfied with all the stocks in the portfolio and continue to monitor developments closely. It was another volatile week on the stock markets, with hope and uncertainty alternating rapidly. Monday started nervously as tensions between the United States and Iran escalated, combined with ongoing unrest surrounding the Strait of Hormuz, a crucial route for global oil trade. This immediately caused investors to become more cautious and increased volatility across the markets. Wednesday turned out to be the strongest trading day of the week. Reports suggesting that the US and Iran were close to reaching an agreement pushed markets toward record highs. Strong results from semiconductor companies and continued optimism surrounding artificial intelligence further supported market sentiment. That relief, however, proved short-lived. Later in the week, tensions escalated once again after President Trump increased pressure on Iran and new incidents occurred around the Strait of Hormuz. As a result, sentiment turned negative again on Thursday and Friday, putting pressure back on the stock markets. Nevertheless, it was notable that oil prices ultimately declined significantly on a weekly basis. Investors increasingly appear to believe that both parties have a strong interest in keeping the strait open and avoiding further escalation. Iran did respond to an American peace proposal, although no concrete details were released. US President Donald Trump called Iran’s response to the American proposal to end the conflict “totally unacceptable” on Sunday evening. According to the Iranian news agency Irna, Tehran wants to continue negotiations with the United States in order to end the conflict, but intends to postpone topics such as Iran’s nuclear ambitions until a later stage. At the moment, a ceasefire between the US and Iran remains in place, although both sides continue to test the agreement almost daily. Meanwhile, oil prices have started to rise again. The coming week will mainly revolve around US inflation data and the question of whether the Federal Reserve will need to keep interest rates higher for longer. Tuesday will be the most important moment, with the release of the CPI figures. Wednesday will follow with the PPI data, providing more insight into cost pressures for businesses and possible pressure on profit margins. Looking ahead, geopolitics will likely remain the dominant market driver for the time being. Market sentiment can currently shift rapidly due to news from the Middle East, leaving investors highly alert to new developments. Meanwhile, behind the scenes we are working hard on an analysis of a new stock for the portfolio. It concerns a banking stock where everything seemed to be going wrong just a few years ago, with excessive risks and major doubts from the market. However, a new CEO is now at the helm and the company appears to have regained control of the business. The latest results were certainly remarkably strong. So keep a close eye on your inbox. Brunel Brunel released an update last week that we view as cautiously positive. At first glance, the figures looked mixed, with revenue declining by 4% and EBIT coming in lower. However, beneath the surface we actually see several signals suggesting that the worst may now be behind the company. Most importantly, we are seeing a return to organic growth. Revenue increased organically by 1%, mainly driven by strong performances in the DACH region and stable developments in Australasia and the Americas. Underlying EBIT also improved organically by 5%, while margins remained stable at 2.7%. This shows that the cost-saving measures are beginning to take effect and that the operational foundation is gradually improving. In addition, management sounded noticeably more optimistic than in previous quarters. CEO Peter de Laat spoke about “encouraging” early signs of recovery and expects this trend to continue cautiously in the coming period. At the same time, Brunel remains realistic about the risks, particularly due to geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, where the company has significant exposure. For us, little changes in the broader investment case. Brunel remains active in attractive niches such as energy, engineering and infrastructure, sectors that are likely to benefit from structural investment trends over the longer term. While the stock may continue to move alongside broader economic uncertainty in the short term, we remain confident in the long-term outlook and continue to be highly positive about the company’s long-term potential. BP Oil and gas company BP has remained resilient in recent weeks, partly supported by higher oil prices and geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. The stock is now trading clearly higher than earlier this year, but precisely in this uncertain market environment we still view BP as an attractive hedge within the portfolio. At the same time, the company is working behind the scenes on a major restructuring. The new CEO, Meg O’Neill, is clearly taking a different approach from her predecessor and is steering BP back toward its core oil and gas activities. The organizational structure is being simplified, thousands of jobs are being cut, and the focus is once again shifting toward cost reductions, cash flow generation and returns. Several activities are also being sold or phased out, including parts of its North Sea operations and the gas station business in the Netherlands. Although this creates some short-term uncertainty, we believe BP is trying to become more efficient and profitable in a sector where scale, low costs and strong cash flows remain crucial. Recent quarterly results also showed that the company continues to benefit significantly from higher energy prices and geopolitical tensions. Naturally, BP remains highly dependent on oil prices and sentiment surrounding the Middle East. However, in the current market environment this is also one of the reasons why we continue to find the stock

Last week was once again a volatile one. The market started cautiously but rebounded on Thursday following a series of earnings releases and central bank decisions. Both the ECB and the Bank of England left interest rates unchanged, but it was mainly the tone from the ECB that stood out. Concerns are increasingly shifting toward economic growth, while inflation is rising again to 3.0%. This places the ECB in a difficult position, where a rate hike later this spring is becoming more realistic. Over the weekend, focus shifted back entirely to geopolitics. Iran sent a fourteen-point plan to the United States as a basis for new negotiations. This involves a phased approach, starting with agreements on the Strait of Hormuz and a ceasefire, followed by discussions on the nuclear program. The response from the U.S. was less reassuring. Trump stated he would review the proposal but also made it clear that he is unlikely to find it sufficient and does not rule out new airstrikes. As a result, the risk of escalation remains clearly present, despite renewed diplomatic efforts on paper. For the market, this means the familiar pattern remains intact. Hope for negotiations provides relief, but strong rhetoric from both sides keeps uncertainty elevated. Given the strategic importance of the Strait of Hormuz, any developments continue to directly impact oil prices and overall sentiment. Looking ahead, it will be an interesting week. In the U.S., we will receive key labor market data, including JOLTS and later the non-farm payrolls, along with wage growth and unemployment figures. These data points are crucial for the Fed’s interest rate path. In the UK, a speech from the Bank of England is also scheduled. Overall, the picture remains unchanged. The market is holding up well but continues to operate in an environment where geopolitics and macroeconomic data can quickly alternate as the dominant driver. This keeps volatility present, even within an upward trend. Additionally, it promises to be a busy week with many earnings reports. Within our portfolio, Grab Holdings reported better-than-expected results last night. We are pleased with this and it confirms our decision to recently double our position. Brunel will report its results this Friday. Following encouraging results from peers, we expect a positive signal here as well. Many companies also pay dividends during this period, with Deceuninck going ex-dividend today. Banijay Last week, we added Banijay to the portfolio. In our view, it is a stock that is still underappreciated by the market. The company combines two strong growth pillars: a global content machine with well-known formats and a fast-growing gaming division with high margins. What makes Banijay particularly interesting is the combination of strong cash flows, expanding margins, and a relatively low valuation. Despite solid performance, the stock trades at multiples more typical of a value stock than a growth company. Additionally, the dividend provides an attractive extra return, while cash flow leaves room for further debt reduction and growth. Sharesunderten sees Banijay as a stock with both price appreciation and dividend potential. As the market begins to better understand this story and liquidity improves, we expect a clear re-rating of the stock. Grab Holdings There was news from Indonesia regarding Grab Holdings that initially appeared negative. The government plans to reduce the maximum commission companies can charge on rides via their platform from 20% to below 10%. While this may seem negative at first glance, Grab indicated in its recent earnings update that there are multiple levers it can pull. This does not necessarily mean total revenue per ride will be halved. The company also reported strong results. In the first quarter, revenue grew by 24% to $955 million, while the number of active users increased by 16% to 51.6 million. Transaction volume also rose by 24% to $6.1 billion, demonstrating broad platform growth. Profitability is also clearly improving. Grab reported net income of $120 million, partly supported by a one-off revaluation of financial positions. More importantly, underlying profitability is improving strongly. EBITDA rose by 46% to $154 million, and margins are expanding, indicating increasing operational leverage. For us, the broader picture remains unchanged. Grab benefits from multiple growth drivers, such as deliveries and financial services, both of which are growing strongly. We are satisfied with these results. It appears Grab is gaining traction in the market and adapting well to regulation. This confirms our decision to recently increase our position. ME Group ME Group held its annual general meeting, where several key points were confirmed. A final dividend of 4.79 pence was approved, bringing the total dividend for 2025 to 8.64 pence per share, representing an increase of 9.5%. The annual accounts and remuneration report were approved, and the composition of the board remained unchanged. Management was also granted continued flexibility to issue shares and allocate capital. Notably, the company expressed its intention to launch a share buyback program of £15 to £20 million. This highlights management’s confidence in cash flow and the underlying value of the company. The AGM reinforces the strong fundamentals of ME Group. The combination of growth and a dividend yield of around 6%, which is relatively high, may indicate that the stock is significantly undervalued. This makes the stock, in Sharesunderten’s view, still highly attractive. BP BP reported strong first-quarter results. The British energy giant clearly benefited from higher oil prices, with underlying profit more than doubling. Profit rose from $1.54 billion in the previous quarter to $3.2 billion, significantly exceeding analyst expectations of $2.67 billion. The division responsible for oil trading and fuel sales performed particularly well, with quarterly profit reaching $2.5 billion compared to $1.4 billion previously. Cash flow also remained strong, with operating cash flow at $2.9 billion. Net debt stood at $25.3 billion, but BP remains committed to reducing this to between $14 and $18 billion by the end of 2027. This shows that the company is maintaining a focus on balance sheet strength alongside growth. Shareholders continue to be rewarded. BP is paying a dividend of

Once again, it was a week in which sentiment dominated the markets. This is clearly reflected in the portfolio. Movements are rapid and often driven not by fundamental changes, but by expectations, headlines and geopolitics. In such an environment, it is essential to remain focused on the quality of the underlying businesses. Share prices may correct, but that does not necessarily reflect the intrinsic value of a company. Much of the ongoing uncertainty continues to stem from developments in the Middle East. Where there had previously been hopes of renewed dialogue between the United States and Iran, that scenario now appears increasingly unlikely. Talks failed to materialise over the weekend, and even indirect negotiations did not take place. As a result, the situation remains firmly at an impasse. This is highly relevant for financial markets, as the consequences are immediately tangible. The Strait of Hormuz remains a critical factor, and as long as stability is absent, upward pressure on oil prices is likely to persist. This feeds into inflation expectations and complicates the task for central banks. The likelihood of a near-term de-escalation appears limited, meaning this will remain a key source of volatility. At the same time, earnings season is in full swing. Over the coming weeks, a steady flow of results is expected, including from companies within our portfolio. BP will report its first-quarter results tomorrow. Of particular importance will be management’s outlook on the situation surrounding the Strait of Hormuz. The market currently views BP as a potential beneficiary, but it is crucial to understand how management itself assesses these developments. On the macro front, it will also be a busy week. The Federal Reserve’s interest rate decision is scheduled for Wednesday, followed by the Bank of England and the European Central Bank on Thursday. While rates are expected to remain unchanged, the tone and forward guidance will be equally important. In addition, US growth data and inflation indicators such as core PCE will provide further direction for monetary policy. Overall, the picture remains unchanged. Markets are being driven by sentiment, while underlying uncertainty persists. This calls for discipline and a continued focus on the long term. Periods like these often lay the foundation for future returns. Envipco Envipco introduced some uncertainty last week by postponing the publication of its annual report. While the results were initially expected by 30 April at the latest, this has now been delayed until approximately 15 May. Notably, the company has not provided a clear explanation for the postponement. At the same time, Envipco indicated that no changes are expected compared to the previously published, unaudited figures. From a fundamental perspective, little has changed, but the lack of clarity does create some noise in the market. It is also relevant to look at peer company Tomra. Its results were mixed overall, but the Collection segment, which includes deposit return systems, delivered strong growth, with revenue increasing by 12% to €208 million, and 15% when adjusted for currency effects. This is particularly relevant as it is the exact market in which Envipco operates. It confirms that underlying demand for deposit return solutions remains strong and continues to grow structurally, driven by regulation and further system rollouts. On balance, little has changed in our view. The delay is not ideal and raises questions, but the sector dynamics remain positive. Sharesunderten therefore remains constructive, with a focus on the final results and further commentary from management. Rolls-Royce Rolls-Royce came under pressure last week due to a combination of geopolitical developments and sector sentiment. Rising tensions between the United States and Iran pushed oil prices higher, with Brent approaching $100. This has a direct impact on the aviation sector. For airlines, higher fuel costs translate into margin pressure, often leading to capacity adjustments. This is already becoming visible. Airlines such as Lufthansa have reduced flight schedules due to the situation in the Middle East. Fewer flight hours directly reduce demand for maintenance services, which is a key driver of Rolls-Royce’s business model. Approximately half of the company’s revenue is derived from civil aviation, with a significant portion based on so-called “power-by-the-hour” service contracts. As a result, fewer flight hours have a direct impact on revenue and profitability. Additionally, there was further negative sentiment from within the sector. GE Aerospace lowered its growth expectations for global flight activity in 2026, which weighed on sentiment across the engine manufacturing industry. These factors are largely short-term in nature and do not reflect the company’s long-term potential, but they do create near-term pressure. While this highlights the company’s sensitivity to macroeconomic and geopolitical developments, Sharesunderten continues to see significant long-term potential and maintains a strong position in the stock. Grafton Group At Grafton Group, last week’s movements were primarily technical and capital-driven. The stock went ex-dividend on 23 April, with the final dividend for 2025 of 27 pence per share being detached. As is typical, this resulted in an automatic downward adjustment in the share price, independent of underlying performance. The actual dividend payment will be made on 21 May. At the same time, Grafton continues to return capital to shareholders through share buybacks. In early March, the company launched a new programme of up to £25 million, and additional shares were repurchased last week. Approximately 75,000 shares were bought on 21 April at around 952 pence, followed by further purchases on 23 April. These shares are subsequently cancelled. This underlines management’s confidence in the company’s valuation and its strong cash flow position. From our perspective, the investment case remains unchanged. Grafton continues to be a stable operator, deploying capital in a disciplined manner and rewarding shareholders through multiple channels.

Midway through the week, the market seemed to catch its breath for a moment, but that calm was short-lived. During the night from Tuesday to Wednesday, a further escalation in the Middle East was still clearly looming. The two-week delay provided some relief, which was immediately reflected in the market. However, it quickly felt fragile. It has since become clear that the ceasefire is anything but stable and that the situation could shift again at any moment.