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Markets gradually adjusting to geopolitical tensions

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Volatile markets require discipline

You will undoubtedly have noticed that we have taken fewer new positions in recent weeks. This is no coincidence. Although more and more stocks are falling below the £10 threshold—effectively expanding our hunting ground—we are deliberately adopting a more cautious approach for now. The reason lies in the exceptional market volatility driven by geopolitical tensions and persistently high oil prices, which continue to unsettle investors. The past week was entirely dominated by escalating tensions between the United States and Iran. What began as a tense weekend evolved into a week marked by rapidly shifting deadlines, delays, and conflicting signals. For financial markets, this resulted in an unusually high level of uncertainty. Over the weekend, President Trump set the tone with a firm ultimatum. Iran was required to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, or Iranian energy facilities would be targeted within 48 hours. This immediately triggered panic in the oil market, with prices briefly surging toward $115 per barrel. However, Monday brought a notable shift. Trump suddenly spoke of “very good and productive” discussions and postponed the threatened attacks by five days. Markets reacted with relief, but that optimism proved short-lived. Iran denied that any talks were taking place at all, which quickly reintroduced doubt into the market. This uncertainty remained dominant throughout the rest of the week. Sentiment shifted multiple times, driven more by political statements than by fundamental developments. Oil prices fluctuated significantly, and investors became increasingly sensitive to every new headline. Meanwhile, tensions persisted in the background, with ongoing attacks and indications that other countries might become involved in the conflict. What makes the situation particularly complex is that the risk of escalation is not disappearing, but rather being postponed. Repeated delays in deadlines may indicate that preparations are continuing behind the scenes. Reports of potential additional military deployments by the United States reinforce this view. In such an environment, we believe it is essential to maintain discipline. This does not mean we are inactive—quite the opposite. We continue to monitor the market closely and actively search for opportunities. However, we are consciously more selective, only acting when we believe the risk-reward profile is clearly in our favor. We remain ready to act and have a watchlist of stocks firmly on our radar, so keep an eye on your inbox. Kudelski The Swiss company published its annual report last week, although it contained no major surprises. The key points were largely already known to the market and align with the picture we have previously outlined. Since our entry, the stock has risen by approximately 15%, confirming that sentiment around the company is beginning to improve. Despite this increase, we still see upside potential, particularly given the strong balance sheet, net cash position, and low valuation relative to underlying assets. At the same time, it is important to maintain discipline. Members with relatively large positions may consider taking partial profits. This does not alter our positive long-term view but helps maintain a balanced risk position within the portfolio. Grab Holdings We have seen a clear increase in activity around Grab Holdings over the past week, both strategically and in terms of capital allocation. The company announced a share buyback of up to $400 million within a relatively short timeframe, a strong signal that management has confidence in the company’s underlying value. Additionally, agreements have been reached with major financial institutions such as JPMorgan and Morgan Stanley, indicating further optimization of the capital structure and increased balance sheet flexibility. At the same time, an activist campaign surrounding Delivery Hero is unfolding in the background, with Grab indirectly involved. While this may create short-term noise, we view it as a potential catalyst. Such pressure can lead to sharper strategic decisions and more efficient capital allocation, ultimately benefiting shareholders. Fundamentally, the story remains intact. Grab holds strong market positions in Southeast Asia, benefits from structural growth in digital payments, mobility, and delivery services, and is making clear progress toward profitability. The combination of operational improvement and active capital management positions the stock attractively in our view. Sharesunderten therefore remains positive and continues to see significant upside potential. Auction Technology Group The company received court approval for its announced capital reduction, further optimizing the balance sheet and creating room for more efficient capital usage. While this may appear to be a technical step, it is strategically relevant as it increases flexibility toward shareholders. Market interest also remains evident. Analysts continue to highlight upside potential, driven by the combination of a relatively low valuation and the structural growth of online auction platforms. Previous takeover interest has also demonstrated that the company holds strategic value not yet fully reflected in the current share price. Fundamentally, our view remains unchanged. ATG has strong positions in both art and antiques auctions as well as industrial auctions, supported by a scalable platform and solid cash flows. Recent investments and integrations are temporarily weighing on margins but are laying the foundation for further profit growth in the coming years. Sharesunderten therefore remains positive and continues to see attractive upside potential. Rolls-Royce Rolls-Royce continues to benefit from a steady stream of positive news, particularly within its defence division. The company has secured multiple large contracts for Rolls-Royce Power Systems, increasing visibility on future revenues. This highlights its strategic positioning within defence and energy infrastructure—sectors currently benefiting from structurally higher investment levels. Additionally, Rolls-Royce confirmed that deliveries of new systems will ramp up from 2028 onwards and that production capacity is being expanded. This indicates a well-filled order book and strong confidence in long-term demand. At the same time, the company remains active in optimizing its capital structure, including through share buybacks. Although there are still critical voices regarding the strong share price performance over the past year, we continue to see a fundamentally compelling story. The combination of operational improvements, strong cash flow development, and exposure to defence makes Rolls-Royce attractively positioned. Sharesunderten therefore remains positive and continues to see upside potential, despite the strong run the stock has

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Updates

Trump Pauses, but Interest Rates Remain Elevated

We see financial markets heading into another week in which tensions may continue to rise. The combination of geopolitical uncertainty, rising energy prices, and increasing interest rates is putting particular pressure on bond markets. In the short term, there appears to be a temporary pause. President Trump postponed a potential attack on Iranian energy facilities by five days, following what he described as “very good and productive talks” with Iran. This temporarily reduced immediate fears of escalation in the Middle East and gave markets some brief relief. However, that calm appears fragile. Equities gave back part of their earlier gains after Iranian state media reported that no direct talks would take place. The confusion increased further when Trump later stated that there had indeed been contact with a senior Iranian official, though not with the Ayatollah. This highlights how uncertain and fluid the situation remains, and why markets continue to react to every new signal. At the same time, pressure on financial markets is building further, particularly through rising interest rates. The UK 10-year yield has recently climbed sharply toward 5%, levels that have historically been associated with increased stress in the financial system. Higher interest rates not only raise financing costs for governments and businesses but also directly weigh on equity valuations. Notably, equity markets have so far remained relatively calm. This creates a clear tension. While bonds and commodities are already pricing in a more challenging economic scenario, equity markets still seem to assume a controlled outcome. This discrepancy makes the market vulnerable. If the situation escalates further, a correction could accelerate. Sharesunderten is closely monitoring developments and will adjust where necessary. The coming week will revolve around several key macroeconomic indicators. In particular, the first PMI readings will provide insight into how companies are responding to recent turmoil, while inflation data from the UK and labour market figures from the US will guide expectations for central bank policy. In the current environment, these are not ‘ordinary’ data points but early indicators of the economic impact of geopolitical tensions. At the same time, we continue to closely monitor our portfolio and the broader market. It is precisely in these phases that opportunities arise. Falling prices mean that more and more stocks are dropping below the ten-pound threshold — and those are exactly the opportunities we target. This expands our investment universe and simply creates more “fish in the pond.” Our strategy therefore remains unchanged. We remain selective, closely track market developments, and are ready to act when valuations become attractive. In volatile markets, the focus is not only on risks but also on the opportunities that emerge from them. ME Group After weeks of uncertainty, during which the stock was suspended due to delayed annual results, ME Group ultimately surprised the market positively. The company released strong results yesterday morning, showing clear improvements in both revenue and margins. Revenue continued to grow, driven by strong performance in its laundry services, which have become an increasingly important pillar of the business model. Group revenue rose by 2.4% to £315.4 million, compared to £307.9 million a year earlier. At the same time, ME Group improved its EBITDA margin from 37.1% to 38.2%. This margin expansion, combined with revenue growth, resulted in further increases in profitability. Profit before tax came in at £78.2 million, compared to £73.4 million a year earlier — an increase of 6.5%. This underscores that economies of scale and operational efficiency are delivering results. What stands out in particular is the confidence shown by management. The dividend is increased by 9.5%, and the company is also launching a £18 million share buyback programme. This indicates robust cash flows and the ability to return capital to shareholders. Furthermore, management indicated that 2026 is expected to develop positively. The timing of the suspension could even be considered fortunate. The last trading day was 27 February, just one day before the Israeli-American attacks on Iran. While the broader market declined — with the FTSE 100 falling by as much as 10% — ME Group remained unchanged due to the suspension. Investors who do not yet hold a position may still consider doing so. Envipco Envipco featured prominently in the news last week. The company announced that it has become an exclusive supplier for a national retailer in the UK, while a major project in Portugal is also progressing. In addition, it announced an extraordinary general meeting and introduced a new CEO. This creates a clear combination of operational progress and strategic change. What stands out is that Envipco is increasingly securing these types of contracts, underlining its strong positioning in the rollout of deposit return systems across Europe. Governments are increasingly mandating such systems, driving structural demand for reverse vending machines. Envipco benefits not only from the sale of machines but also from long-term service contracts, which make the business model more stable and recurring over time. Overall, the core investment thesis remains unchanged. Envipco remains a typical growth company with strong structural tailwinds, although short-term volatility may persist. The recent contracts confirm that the company is gaining market share and further expanding its presence in Europe. We therefore continue to hold Envipco firmly within the portfolio.   Grafton Group Last week, Grafton announced a strategically important acquisition that aligns seamlessly with its long-term strategy. The company revealed it will acquire Mercaluz, a Spanish distributor of air conditioning and HVAC solutions (heating, ventilation, and air conditioning) with a strong position among professional installers. With this acquisition, Grafton takes another step in expanding its presence in the Iberian market. Following the earlier acquisition of Salvador Escoda, Mercaluz further strengthens that footprint. Both companies operate in the fast-growing HVAC segment, which benefits from structural trends such as the energy transition, climate regulation, and increasing demand for cooling and ventilation. Financially, the deal appears solid. With expected revenue of €150 million and operating profit of over €22 million, Grafton is acquiring a profitable and growing business. The €165 million purchase price suggests

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Breaking news

BREAKING NEWS: Acting quickly and taking profits

Only a few weeks ago, we purchased this company because, in our view, the share was extremely undervalued. Due to the negative sentiment surrounding Chinese technology stocks, the share price had become disconnected from the company’s operational performance, even though the business is showing strong revenue growth, rapidly rising free cash flow and a solid balance sheet with a net cash position. At the current valuation, we consider the downside risk to be limited. In addition, we see an extra opportunity in a potential reintegration by the parent company, which could buy back the logistics network in full relatively cheaply at the current low valuation.

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Updates

Exploding Oil Prices Cause Turmoil in the Stock Market

The new trading week begins in a tense atmosphere. The war in the Middle East between the United States, Israel, and Iran is still ongoing and continues to dominate the financial markets. The escalation of the conflict has led to an explosive rise in oil prices. Brent and WTI climbed sharply in a short period of time and temporarily traded around $120 per barrel. In particular, the situation surrounding the Strait of Hormuz is creating significant uncertainty, as a substantial portion of global oil exports passes through this strategic passage

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Analyses

Debt-Free, but Investors Still Waiting for a Reward

The share price currently trades around CHF 1.15. That appears low, especially considering the company is now completely debt-free following the sale of Skidata and holds a net cash position. Yet the stock remains under pressure. Why? Because balance sheet repair does not automatically translate into profit recovery.

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Updates

Markets under pressure following attack on Iran in fragile macro environment

The new trading week begins in a markedly different atmosphere from the one in which the month ended. The attack by the United States and Israel on Iran, in which, according to reports, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei was killed, represents a significant escalation in the Middle East. This is no longer a targeted operation conducted in the shadows, but an open confrontation with direct consequences for global risk sentiment. Iran has announced retaliation, and the threat of further military action is clearly hanging over the markets.

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