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Trump Pauses, but Interest Rates Remain Elevated

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Volatile markets require discipline

You will undoubtedly have noticed that we have taken fewer new positions in recent weeks. This is no coincidence. Although more and more stocks are falling below the £10 threshold—effectively expanding our hunting ground—we are deliberately adopting a more cautious approach for now. The reason lies in the exceptional market volatility driven by geopolitical tensions and persistently high oil prices, which continue to unsettle investors. The past week was entirely dominated by escalating tensions between the United States and Iran. What began as a tense weekend evolved into a week marked by rapidly shifting deadlines, delays, and conflicting signals. For financial markets, this resulted in an unusually high level of uncertainty. Over the weekend, President Trump set the tone with a firm ultimatum. Iran was required to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, or Iranian energy facilities would be targeted within 48 hours. This immediately triggered panic in the oil market, with prices briefly surging toward $115 per barrel. However, Monday brought a notable shift. Trump suddenly spoke of “very good and productive” discussions and postponed the threatened attacks by five days. Markets reacted with relief, but that optimism proved short-lived. Iran denied that any talks were taking place at all, which quickly reintroduced doubt into the market. This uncertainty remained dominant throughout the rest of the week. Sentiment shifted multiple times, driven more by political statements than by fundamental developments. Oil prices fluctuated significantly, and investors became increasingly sensitive to every new headline. Meanwhile, tensions persisted in the background, with ongoing attacks and indications that other countries might become involved in the conflict. What makes the situation particularly complex is that the risk of escalation is not disappearing, but rather being postponed. Repeated delays in deadlines may indicate that preparations are continuing behind the scenes. Reports of potential additional military deployments by the United States reinforce this view. In such an environment, we believe it is essential to maintain discipline. This does not mean we are inactive—quite the opposite. We continue to monitor the market closely and actively search for opportunities. However, we are consciously more selective, only acting when we believe the risk-reward profile is clearly in our favor. We remain ready to act and have a watchlist of stocks firmly on our radar, so keep an eye on your inbox. Kudelski The Swiss company published its annual report last week, although it contained no major surprises. The key points were largely already known to the market and align with the picture we have previously outlined. Since our entry, the stock has risen by approximately 15%, confirming that sentiment around the company is beginning to improve. Despite this increase, we still see upside potential, particularly given the strong balance sheet, net cash position, and low valuation relative to underlying assets. At the same time, it is important to maintain discipline. Members with relatively large positions may consider taking partial profits. This does not alter our positive long-term view but helps maintain a balanced risk position within the portfolio. Grab Holdings We have seen a clear increase in activity around Grab Holdings over the past week, both strategically and in terms of capital allocation. The company announced a share buyback of up to $400 million within a relatively short timeframe, a strong signal that management has confidence in the company’s underlying value. Additionally, agreements have been reached with major financial institutions such as JPMorgan and Morgan Stanley, indicating further optimization of the capital structure and increased balance sheet flexibility. At the same time, an activist campaign surrounding Delivery Hero is unfolding in the background, with Grab indirectly involved. While this may create short-term noise, we view it as a potential catalyst. Such pressure can lead to sharper strategic decisions and more efficient capital allocation, ultimately benefiting shareholders. Fundamentally, the story remains intact. Grab holds strong market positions in Southeast Asia, benefits from structural growth in digital payments, mobility, and delivery services, and is making clear progress toward profitability. The combination of operational improvement and active capital management positions the stock attractively in our view. Sharesunderten therefore remains positive and continues to see significant upside potential. Auction Technology Group The company received court approval for its announced capital reduction, further optimizing the balance sheet and creating room for more efficient capital usage. While this may appear to be a technical step, it is strategically relevant as it increases flexibility toward shareholders. Market interest also remains evident. Analysts continue to highlight upside potential, driven by the combination of a relatively low valuation and the structural growth of online auction platforms. Previous takeover interest has also demonstrated that the company holds strategic value not yet fully reflected in the current share price. Fundamentally, our view remains unchanged. ATG has strong positions in both art and antiques auctions as well as industrial auctions, supported by a scalable platform and solid cash flows. Recent investments and integrations are temporarily weighing on margins but are laying the foundation for further profit growth in the coming years. Sharesunderten therefore remains positive and continues to see attractive upside potential. Rolls-Royce Rolls-Royce continues to benefit from a steady stream of positive news, particularly within its defence division. The company has secured multiple large contracts for Rolls-Royce Power Systems, increasing visibility on future revenues. This highlights its strategic positioning within defence and energy infrastructure—sectors currently benefiting from structurally higher investment levels. Additionally, Rolls-Royce confirmed that deliveries of new systems will ramp up from 2028 onwards and that production capacity is being expanded. This indicates a well-filled order book and strong confidence in long-term demand. At the same time, the company remains active in optimizing its capital structure, including through share buybacks. Although there are still critical voices regarding the strong share price performance over the past year, we continue to see a fundamentally compelling story. The combination of operational improvements, strong cash flow development, and exposure to defence makes Rolls-Royce attractively positioned. Sharesunderten therefore remains positive and continues to see upside potential, despite the strong run the stock has

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Updates

Markets gradually adjusting to geopolitical tensions

Sharesunderten observes that financial markets appear to be slowly adjusting to the war in the Middle East. While geopolitical shocks often lead to sharp market declines initially, investors tend to adapt to the new reality over time. This became visible again on the British stock market last week. The FTSE 100 fell by about 0.8%, a significantly smaller move than the nearly 5% drop seen a week earlier. In the United States, sentiment also remained cautiously negative. The S&P 500 lost 0.6% on Friday, while the Nasdaq declined 0.9% and the Dow Jones closed 0.3% lower. The energy market remains at the center of attention. The price of a barrel of WTI crude oil climbed back toward $99 on Friday, partly due to the ongoing blockade of the Strait of Hormuz. On a weekly basis, oil prices rose by more than 8%. This shipping lane is one of the most important chokepoints in global oil trade, and any disruption there almost immediately translates into higher energy prices. The United States temporarily decided to ease oil sanctions on Russia to prevent a potential shortage in the oil market, although analysts expect this move to have only a limited impact on the available supply. Meanwhile, recent U.S. macroeconomic data paint a mixed picture of the economy. Economic growth in the fourth quarter was revised downward to 0.7%, roughly half of the previously reported 1.4%. At the same time, core inflation in January edged up slightly from 3.0% to 3.1%. U.S. consumer income and spending both increased by 0.4% month-over-month, while durable goods orders remained unchanged. The upcoming trading week promises to be busy on the macroeconomic front. In the United States, investors will be closely watching producer price data and the Federal Reserve meeting, including new economic projections and comments from Chairman Jerome Powell. However, a significant part of the attention is shifting toward the United Kingdom. A series of economic releases there could provide more clarity on the future direction of British interest rate policy. Wednesday begins with labor market data, including the Claimant Count Change. Later in the week, markets will focus on the Bank of England’s interest rate decision, the vote within the Monetary Policy Committee, and the official policy statement. For investors, the key question is whether the Bank of England sees room to lower interest rates later this year. British inflation remains relatively persistent and still sits well above the central bank’s 2% target. At the same time, there are signs that the economy is cooling, forcing the central bank to strike a difficult balance between combating inflation and maintaining economic stability. Of course, Sharesunderten stocks tend to be less affected by economic disappointments, but positive surprises can act as a powerful catalyst for low-priced stocks. Our focus is precisely on those companies whose share prices appear undervalued. Below is an overview of key developments among the stocks in the Sharesunderten portfolio. ME Group ME Group was originally expected to release its annual results by March 13, but the company has postponed the publication to March 23. This situation is somewhat unusual, because trading in the stock remains suspended until the results are released. For investors, that can understandably feel uncomfortable. However, at this stage we see no reason to immediately assume the worst. Delays in reporting results occur more often than many people think. In many cases, they are related to finalizing the audit process or conducting additional checks before the results are officially confirmed. Often this is primarily an administrative matter rather than a signal that something is fundamentally wrong with the business. Most importantly, the underlying story of ME Group has not changed. In recent years, the company has demonstrated a robust business model with stable cash flows and a strong position in its niche markets. That fundamental strength does not disappear simply because of a short delay in reporting results. Sharesunderten therefore looks forward with interest to March 23, when we will not only see the financial results themselves but also hear management’s commentary and updated expectations for the coming year. Until then, all we can do is wait patiently.   Envipco Envipco released its annual results last week, and they were honestly somewhat disappointing. Revenue fell by 27% in the fourth quarter to €23.8 million, and margins also came under pressure. Because of the lower sales volume, factories operated below capacity, which further weighed on margins. Ultimately, the quarter ended with an operating loss of €1.0 million and a net loss of €2.1 million. The full-year picture for 2025 was also weaker. Revenue came in at €90.4 million, representing a 21% decline compared with the previous year. The net loss widened to €10.8 million. CEO Simon Bolton therefore described the quarter as weak and emphasized that 2025 should primarily be seen as a transition year. However, this does little to change the broader investment case for the company. Across Europe, more and more countries are introducing deposit-return systems for plastic bottles and cans. Envipco directly benefits from this development, because supermarkets and collection points require the company’s machines and systems to operate these programs. New contracts from countries including Poland and Portugal show that this market continues to expand. For us, Envipco therefore remains a story of patience. Quarterly results can fluctuate significantly, but the structural growth of deposit systems across Europe clearly works in the company’s favor. Meanwhile, our position is already up around 7%. We therefore remain patient and continue to monitor the stock closely. Sunny Optical Sunny Optical is expected to attract renewed attention in the coming weeks. The company has announced that its board will meet on March 30 to approve the final results for 2025 and decide on the dividend. Investors will then receive a full picture of the company’s performance over the past year. Ahead of this meeting, the company already issued a profit alert. Sunny Optical expects net profit for 2025 to increase by roughly 70% to 75%, reaching approximately RMB 4.6 to 4.7

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Breaking news

BREAKING NEWS: Acting quickly and taking profits

Only a few weeks ago, we purchased this company because, in our view, the share was extremely undervalued. Due to the negative sentiment surrounding Chinese technology stocks, the share price had become disconnected from the company’s operational performance, even though the business is showing strong revenue growth, rapidly rising free cash flow and a solid balance sheet with a net cash position. At the current valuation, we consider the downside risk to be limited. In addition, we see an extra opportunity in a potential reintegration by the parent company, which could buy back the logistics network in full relatively cheaply at the current low valuation.

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Updates

Exploding Oil Prices Cause Turmoil in the Stock Market

The new trading week begins in a tense atmosphere. The war in the Middle East between the United States, Israel, and Iran is still ongoing and continues to dominate the financial markets. The escalation of the conflict has led to an explosive rise in oil prices. Brent and WTI climbed sharply in a short period of time and temporarily traded around $120 per barrel. In particular, the situation surrounding the Strait of Hormuz is creating significant uncertainty, as a substantial portion of global oil exports passes through this strategic passage

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Analyses

Debt-Free, but Investors Still Waiting for a Reward

The share price currently trades around CHF 1.15. That appears low, especially considering the company is now completely debt-free following the sale of Skidata and holds a net cash position. Yet the stock remains under pressure. Why? Because balance sheet repair does not automatically translate into profit recovery.

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Updates

Markets under pressure following attack on Iran in fragile macro environment

The new trading week begins in a markedly different atmosphere from the one in which the month ended. The attack by the United States and Israel on Iran, in which, according to reports, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei was killed, represents a significant escalation in the Middle East. This is no longer a targeted operation conducted in the shadows, but an open confrontation with direct consequences for global risk sentiment. Iran has announced retaliation, and the threat of further military action is clearly hanging over the markets.

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