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Trump Pauses, but Interest Rates Remain Elevated

We see financial markets heading into another week in which tensions may continue to rise. The combination of geopolitical uncertainty, rising energy prices, and increasing interest rates is putting particular pressure on bond markets. In the short term, there appears to be a temporary pause. President Trump postponed a potential attack on Iranian energy facilities by five days, following what he described as “very good and productive talks” with Iran. This temporarily reduced immediate fears of escalation in the Middle East and gave markets some brief relief. However, that calm appears fragile. Equities gave back part of their earlier gains after Iranian state media reported that no direct talks would take place. The confusion increased further when Trump later stated that there had indeed been contact with a senior Iranian official, though not with the Ayatollah. This highlights how uncertain and fluid the situation remains, and why markets continue to react to every new signal. At the same time, pressure on financial markets is building further, particularly through rising interest rates. The UK 10-year yield has recently climbed sharply toward 5%, levels that have historically been associated with increased stress in the financial system. Higher interest rates not only raise financing costs for governments and businesses but also directly weigh on equity valuations. Notably, equity markets have so far remained relatively calm. This creates a clear tension. While bonds and commodities are already pricing in a more challenging economic scenario, equity markets still seem to assume a controlled outcome. This discrepancy makes the market vulnerable. If the situation escalates further, a correction could accelerate. Sharesunderten is closely monitoring developments and will adjust where necessary. The coming week will revolve around several key macroeconomic indicators. In particular, the first PMI readings will provide insight into how companies are responding to recent turmoil, while inflation data from the UK and labour market figures from the US will guide expectations for central bank policy. In the current environment, these are not ‘ordinary’ data points but early indicators of the economic impact of geopolitical tensions. At the same time, we continue to closely monitor our portfolio and the broader market. It is precisely in these phases that opportunities arise. Falling prices mean that more and more stocks are dropping below the ten-pound threshold — and those are exactly the opportunities we target. This expands our investment universe and simply creates more “fish in the pond.” Our strategy therefore remains unchanged. We remain selective, closely track market developments, and are ready to act when valuations become attractive. In volatile markets, the focus is not only on risks but also on the opportunities that emerge from them. ME Group After weeks of uncertainty, during which the stock was suspended due to delayed annual results, ME Group ultimately surprised the market positively. The company released strong results yesterday morning, showing clear improvements in both revenue and margins. Revenue continued to grow, driven by strong performance in its laundry services, which have become an increasingly important pillar of the business model. Group revenue rose by 2.4% to £315.4 million, compared to £307.9 million a year earlier. At the same time, ME Group improved its EBITDA margin from 37.1% to 38.2%. This margin expansion, combined with revenue growth, resulted in further increases in profitability. Profit before tax came in at £78.2 million, compared to £73.4 million a year earlier — an increase of 6.5%. This underscores that economies of scale and operational efficiency are delivering results. What stands out in particular is the confidence shown by management. The dividend is increased by 9.5%, and the company is also launching a £18 million share buyback programme. This indicates robust cash flows and the ability to return capital to shareholders. Furthermore, management indicated that 2026 is expected to develop positively. The timing of the suspension could even be considered fortunate. The last trading day was 27 February, just one day before the Israeli-American attacks on Iran. While the broader market declined — with the FTSE 100 falling by as much as 10% — ME Group remained unchanged due to the suspension. Investors who do not yet hold a position may still consider doing so. Envipco Envipco featured prominently in the news last week. The company announced that it has become an exclusive supplier for a national retailer in the UK, while a major project in Portugal is also progressing. In addition, it announced an extraordinary general meeting and introduced a new CEO. This creates a clear combination of operational progress and strategic change. What stands out is that Envipco is increasingly securing these types of contracts, underlining its strong positioning in the rollout of deposit return systems across Europe. Governments are increasingly mandating such systems, driving structural demand for reverse vending machines. Envipco benefits not only from the sale of machines but also from long-term service contracts, which make the business model more stable and recurring over time. Overall, the core investment thesis remains unchanged. Envipco remains a typical growth company with strong structural tailwinds, although short-term volatility may persist. The recent contracts confirm that the company is gaining market share and further expanding its presence in Europe. We therefore continue to hold Envipco firmly within the portfolio.   Grafton Group Last week, Grafton announced a strategically important acquisition that aligns seamlessly with its long-term strategy. The company revealed it will acquire Mercaluz, a Spanish distributor of air conditioning and HVAC solutions (heating, ventilation, and air conditioning) with a strong position among professional installers. With this acquisition, Grafton takes another step in expanding its presence in the Iberian market. Following the earlier acquisition of Salvador Escoda, Mercaluz further strengthens that footprint. Both companies operate in the fast-growing HVAC segment, which benefits from structural trends such as the energy transition, climate regulation, and increasing demand for cooling and ventilation. Financially, the deal appears solid. With expected revenue of €150 million and operating profit of over €22 million, Grafton is acquiring a profitable and growing business. The €165 million purchase price suggests

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Updates

Markets gradually adjusting to geopolitical tensions

Sharesunderten observes that financial markets appear to be slowly adjusting to the war in the Middle East. While geopolitical shocks often lead to sharp market declines initially, investors tend to adapt to the new reality over time. This became visible again on the British stock market last week. The FTSE 100 fell by about 0.8%, a significantly smaller move than the nearly 5% drop seen a week earlier. In the United States, sentiment also remained cautiously negative. The S&P 500 lost 0.6% on Friday, while the Nasdaq declined 0.9% and the Dow Jones closed 0.3% lower. The energy market remains at the center of attention. The price of a barrel of WTI crude oil climbed back toward $99 on Friday, partly due to the ongoing blockade of the Strait of Hormuz. On a weekly basis, oil prices rose by more than 8%. This shipping lane is one of the most important chokepoints in global oil trade, and any disruption there almost immediately translates into higher energy prices. The United States temporarily decided to ease oil sanctions on Russia to prevent a potential shortage in the oil market, although analysts expect this move to have only a limited impact on the available supply. Meanwhile, recent U.S. macroeconomic data paint a mixed picture of the economy. Economic growth in the fourth quarter was revised downward to 0.7%, roughly half of the previously reported 1.4%. At the same time, core inflation in January edged up slightly from 3.0% to 3.1%. U.S. consumer income and spending both increased by 0.4% month-over-month, while durable goods orders remained unchanged. The upcoming trading week promises to be busy on the macroeconomic front. In the United States, investors will be closely watching producer price data and the Federal Reserve meeting, including new economic projections and comments from Chairman Jerome Powell. However, a significant part of the attention is shifting toward the United Kingdom. A series of economic releases there could provide more clarity on the future direction of British interest rate policy. Wednesday begins with labor market data, including the Claimant Count Change. Later in the week, markets will focus on the Bank of England’s interest rate decision, the vote within the Monetary Policy Committee, and the official policy statement. For investors, the key question is whether the Bank of England sees room to lower interest rates later this year. British inflation remains relatively persistent and still sits well above the central bank’s 2% target. At the same time, there are signs that the economy is cooling, forcing the central bank to strike a difficult balance between combating inflation and maintaining economic stability. Of course, Sharesunderten stocks tend to be less affected by economic disappointments, but positive surprises can act as a powerful catalyst for low-priced stocks. Our focus is precisely on those companies whose share prices appear undervalued. Below is an overview of key developments among the stocks in the Sharesunderten portfolio. ME Group ME Group was originally expected to release its annual results by March 13, but the company has postponed the publication to March 23. This situation is somewhat unusual, because trading in the stock remains suspended until the results are released. For investors, that can understandably feel uncomfortable. However, at this stage we see no reason to immediately assume the worst. Delays in reporting results occur more often than many people think. In many cases, they are related to finalizing the audit process or conducting additional checks before the results are officially confirmed. Often this is primarily an administrative matter rather than a signal that something is fundamentally wrong with the business. Most importantly, the underlying story of ME Group has not changed. In recent years, the company has demonstrated a robust business model with stable cash flows and a strong position in its niche markets. That fundamental strength does not disappear simply because of a short delay in reporting results. Sharesunderten therefore looks forward with interest to March 23, when we will not only see the financial results themselves but also hear management’s commentary and updated expectations for the coming year. Until then, all we can do is wait patiently.   Envipco Envipco released its annual results last week, and they were honestly somewhat disappointing. Revenue fell by 27% in the fourth quarter to €23.8 million, and margins also came under pressure. Because of the lower sales volume, factories operated below capacity, which further weighed on margins. Ultimately, the quarter ended with an operating loss of €1.0 million and a net loss of €2.1 million. The full-year picture for 2025 was also weaker. Revenue came in at €90.4 million, representing a 21% decline compared with the previous year. The net loss widened to €10.8 million. CEO Simon Bolton therefore described the quarter as weak and emphasized that 2025 should primarily be seen as a transition year. However, this does little to change the broader investment case for the company. Across Europe, more and more countries are introducing deposit-return systems for plastic bottles and cans. Envipco directly benefits from this development, because supermarkets and collection points require the company’s machines and systems to operate these programs. New contracts from countries including Poland and Portugal show that this market continues to expand. For us, Envipco therefore remains a story of patience. Quarterly results can fluctuate significantly, but the structural growth of deposit systems across Europe clearly works in the company’s favor. Meanwhile, our position is already up around 7%. We therefore remain patient and continue to monitor the stock closely. Sunny Optical Sunny Optical is expected to attract renewed attention in the coming weeks. The company has announced that its board will meet on March 30 to approve the final results for 2025 and decide on the dividend. Investors will then receive a full picture of the company’s performance over the past year. Ahead of this meeting, the company already issued a profit alert. Sunny Optical expects net profit for 2025 to increase by roughly 70% to 75%, reaching approximately RMB 4.6 to 4.7

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Breaking news

BREAKING NEWS: Acting quickly and taking profits

Only a few weeks ago, we purchased this company because, in our view, the share was extremely undervalued. Due to the negative sentiment surrounding Chinese technology stocks, the share price had become disconnected from the company’s operational performance, even though the business is showing strong revenue growth, rapidly rising free cash flow and a solid balance sheet with a net cash position. At the current valuation, we consider the downside risk to be limited. In addition, we see an extra opportunity in a potential reintegration by the parent company, which could buy back the logistics network in full relatively cheaply at the current low valuation.

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Updates

Exploding Oil Prices Cause Turmoil in the Stock Market

The new trading week begins in a tense atmosphere. The war in the Middle East between the United States, Israel, and Iran is still ongoing and continues to dominate the financial markets. The escalation of the conflict has led to an explosive rise in oil prices. Brent and WTI climbed sharply in a short period of time and temporarily traded around $120 per barrel. In particular, the situation surrounding the Strait of Hormuz is creating significant uncertainty, as a substantial portion of global oil exports passes through this strategic passage

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Analyses

Debt-Free, but Investors Still Waiting for a Reward

The share price currently trades around CHF 1.15. That appears low, especially considering the company is now completely debt-free following the sale of Skidata and holds a net cash position. Yet the stock remains under pressure. Why? Because balance sheet repair does not automatically translate into profit recovery.

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Updates

Markets under pressure following attack on Iran in fragile macro environment

The new trading week begins in a markedly different atmosphere from the one in which the month ended. The attack by the United States and Israel on Iran, in which, according to reports, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei was killed, represents a significant escalation in the Middle East. This is no longer a targeted operation conducted in the shadows, but an open confrontation with direct consequences for global risk sentiment. Iran has announced retaliation, and the threat of further military action is clearly hanging over the markets.

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